Do you know how to become a professional NFL gambler?
Do you know what the difference is between professional NFL gamblers and amateurs?
The main difference is that professional NFL bettors have a good opportunity to make a long term profit, and amateur NFL bettors lose more than they win.
But knowing this difference isn’t much help.
You need to know how the professional NFL punters do things that help them win more.
And there’s more to it than just reading the best sports betting books.
This is what I’m going to share with you on this page.
9 Things Professional NFL Gamblers Do That Amateurs Don’t
Here are 9 things that professional NFL gamblers do that amateurs don’t.
If you want to win more games — like the pros do — start doing what a professional NFL gambler does.
1 – A Professional NFL Gambler Will Bet on Early Lines
One of the main things that professional NFL gamblers understand is that they have to find lines that offer value. When NFL lines are posted early in the week, the pros know that some of the lines might not be perfect.
Smart NFL pros look at the lines as soon as they come out to see which ones might offer value. The pros know that they can make more bets later in the week if the lines move, and they know how to hedge bets that they make early if something big changes.
Amateur NFL gamblers often worry that if they make a bet on an early line and something happens to change things later in the week that they’re going to get stuck on the wrong side of a game.
The pros understand that three things can happen when they bet on an early line. The first thing is that nothing changes during the week so making an early bet doesn’t hurt them. This is what happens with most games.
The other two things that can happen is the line either moves against them or for them. In the long run, these two things happen roughly the same number of times, so it evens out.
But the pros also know that they can always hedge their bets when the line moves against them, so they don’t have anything to lose from looking for value on the early lines.
2 – Perform Advanced Quarterback Evaluation
Amateur NFL gamblers know that the quarterback is the most important player on the field, but amateurs rarely understand how to properly handicap the position. The professional NFL gamblers know that they have to look at things beyond the simple stats that amateurs look at for quarterbacks.
The quarterback influences every play of the game. The exchange from the center to the quarterback is the start of every play. This isn’t something that most NFL gamblers consider because there’s rarely a problem with this exchange. But the pros know which teams are prone to making a mistake here. A single bad snap in a game can change the outcome of the game.
The same thing is true on running plays when the quarterback hands the ball off to a running back. Most of these exchanges are clean, but one mistake can cost you a game.
When it comes to the passing game, you need to know who the quarterback’s favorite receivers are, how well each quarterback performs under pressure, how each performs in different areas of the field and in different parts of the game.
Start every game evaluation with a deep dive into the quarterbacks. Learn everything you can about each quarterback so you can use the information when you’re handicapping NFL games.
3 – Profit from Line Moves
I covered how professional NFL gamblers look for value when the lines are released every week in the first section. NFL pros also know how to look for and profit when a line move offers value later in the week.
Amateur NFL gamblers only look at the line before the place a bet, and usually only look at the line at one sportsbook. A professional NFL gambler knows that when they can find a line that is a half-point better that it makes a difference in their long term profits.
Start handicapping games early in the week and check them a couple of times each day at multiple sportsbooks. A line that doesn’t offer value early in the week might move enough to offer value before the game starts.
4 – Understand the Importance of Offensive Lines
Amateur NFL gamblers don’t even think about the offensive line, and professionals know everything they can about each offensive line in the league.
The offensive line impacts every area of the game. A team with a good offensive line is able to get the extra yard they need on a run play to keep the chain moving and they give their quarterback the extra second he needs to find an open receiver.
On the other hand, a poor offensive line forces their quarterback to operate under pressure more often and struggle to keep the chains moving when they need a yard or two on a run play.
5 – Proper Pass Game and Run Game Balance
NFL teams tend to pass more than they run, so this isn’t about the teams having a balanced attack. This is about handicappers understanding the balance if run and pass play that each team has and how to use this information to do a better job handicapping NFL games.
If you look at the passing game and run game equally when you handicap NFL games, you’re making a mistake. Look at the percentage of run and pass plays each team makes and adjust your handicapping based on this.
You also need to look at the percentage of pass plays in the first three quarters compared to the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter can skew the pass percentages, especially for teams that are often trailing late in the game.
6 – Understand the Importance of Cornerbacks
Because the passing game in the NFL is so important, how the defense is able to combat the pass is equally important. The truth is that there aren’t many great cornerbacks in the NFL. Some teams don’t even have one good corner, so they have a hard time stopping the pass.
You need to identify the best cornerbacks in the NFL and learn how good they are at shutting down a top receiver. When a defense doesn’t have a solution for a great receiver they have a hard time winning games.
7 – Understand Public Bias in Lines
Sportsbooks do a good job setting lines that make them money. But the sportsbooks are more interested in setting lines that balance their action on each side of a game than setting a true prediction of what’s going to happen.
This is where public line bias comes into play.
The betting public tends to bet on some teams more than others, and the sportsbooks have this information because they’re taking the bets. When a sportsbook knows that one team in an upcoming game is going to get heavier action, the book sets the line against the popular team.
When you understand why this happens, it helps you see when it’s happening. The professional NFL gamblers know that the value is usually on the other side when they evaluate games with one popular team and a less popular opponent.
8 – Evaluate Defensive Pass Rush Pressure
I’ve talked a great deal about the importance of the passing game in the NFL. But I haven’t talked about what the defense does to influence the passing game beyond having a good cornerback.
The main way that a defense can influence the passing game is by putting pressure on the quarterback. When the defense pressures the quarterback it leads to more sacks and more mistakes made by the offense.
Learn how each NFL team tries to pressure the quarterback and how successful they are. Look at the defensive lines and how each team uses linebackers and occasionally defensive backs for blitzing.
9 – A Professional NFL Gambler Will Almost Always Use an NFL Handicapping Model
When amateur NFL gamblers evaluate games, they usually take a quick look at the standings and maybe a few stats and decide which team to bet on. Professional NFL gamblers use a model or system that is more advanced.
If you’re not using some sort of a handicapping model when you’re evaluating NFL games, the odds are that you’re going to have a hard time turning a long term profit.
Start developing an NFL betting model using the things you learned on this page and keep testing it with new information.
Professional NFL gamblers know what they need to look at and what they can ignore. They use every trick they can to find an edge. This is what you need to start doing to move from an amateur to a pro.
Use the nine things listed on this page that the pros do to get started. Learn how to collect and use more data and you’re going to improve your NFL handicapping results. Build an NFL model or system that makes it easier to use all of the information to help save time.